My Matt Forte Blog

The year 2008 saw yours truly capture his 2nd league championship in 10 years using a 12 team head to head format. My starters were as follows: Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, Larry Johnson, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Jericho Cotchery, Jason Witten, John Casey, and the Eagles defense. In my estimation there are many fantasy owners in denial regarding certain changes that have come full circle the last few years. Being a lifelong Raider fan I know full well what happens when you have individuals who are incapable of adjusting to change. I am obviously referring to Al Davis here. Mr. Davis is without question one of the true pioneers when it comes to not only the NFL but to the entire history of professional football dating back to his early AFL years and even before that. However, Mr. Davis as any true Raider fan will attest to is stuck in the '70's and '80's when it comes to his football philosophies and fails to realize that most of the X's and O's from era's gone by are no longer as effective as they once were. Joe Gibbs also struggled mightily with this and countless numbers of fantasy owners are following suit. Based upon what I can see from my draft and also the number of mock drafts I did last summer I realize that there are loads of stick in the mud fantasy owners who are STILL dead set on taking RB's with their first 2 and sometimes first 3 picks and who in my opinion greatly over exaggerate the value of the position when drafting. A prime example of this lies with an owner in my league we call Tuna Eyes for reasons we won't get into here. Anyways, Tuna Eyes always goes RB, RB, and RB with his first 3 picks and not coincidentally has failed to reach the playoffs each of the last 3 years.

Now, before everyone starts ridiculing me and calling me friendly names listen to my argument. I am NOT saying that RB's are not important. Quite the contrary, if one doesn't have a good stable of RB's their odds of winning his/her league are slim at best. However, times have changed people and my whole point is that with how the NFL is played these days (i.e. running back by committee) there are ample ball carriers that can be had later in the draft that produce similar or greater numbers that high profile backs selected ahead of them. Those owners who fail to adapt to the changing times (i.e. Tuna Eyes) will be left in the dust and not be as successful as their counterparts who are more open minded towards how they are going to draft come late August.

To be truthful I DID take Larry Johnson in the 2nd round of my draft this past summer. I had the 5th pick where I selected Peyton Manning and I thought LJ coming back around in the 2nd was a great value. Needless to say I was wrong. All LJ did last year was slap some woman around at various Kansas City nightclubs while at the same time providing little or no help to owners such as myself who were sucked in by his past accomplishments. Several other backs had similar fates. Well, similar except for the punching woman in Kansas City nightclubs part. In contrast, the 2 backs who I DID ride to the title were:

Chris Johnson (Rookie drafted in the 14th round out of 17 rounds)

Matt Forte (Rookie. I traded Aaron Rogers for Forte who I had drafted in the 16th round)

So, the power backs on my team came from the 14th and 16th rounds respectively. Both of them in addition to several others including DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, Michael Turner, and Lendale White vastly outperformed the likes of LT, Steven Jackson, LJ, Brian Westbrook, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, and Joseph Addai. You cannot make a mistake with your first couple picks and with that being said is is far better to go for a franchise QB and a big play WR like Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald with your first 2 picks and then stockpile RB's later in the draft. They put up more points and are much less prone to injury. Furthermore, RB's are much easier to predict breakout games against poor defenses than WR's and thus playing RB's based on match ups is simpler than other positions. It just makes sense. Ask yourself, how many teams use a one back system now? Hardly any if any at all. Maybe St. Louis bu Jackson is hurt all the time anyways. Moreover, these tandems are getting more evenly distributed each and every year. The "main" guy will get 20 carries and the "backup" will see between 12-15 OR the main guy will get the carries and the yards but then the vulcher will come in and steal all of the TD's. Bottom line is that this is simple math folks. There are FAR more RB's producing quality fantasy points nowadays than there were 5 years ago because all teams now implement multiple back systems in order to preserve their "feature" back from taking an inordinate amount of punishment.

This year will be no different and someone will undoubtedly draft D. Williams in the top 5. A couple of questions pertaining to Williams heading into 2009. (1) Do you REALLY think that he will rush for 1700 yds and 20 TD's this season? (2) How many other good seasons has Williams had? (3) What was the name of that guy Carolina just drafted? Oh yeah, Jonathan Stewart who I also had on my bench last season by the way. Ask me right now who I would rather have this year Williams or Calvin Johnson and I take Megatron again no questions asked. Now, I will say that if I secure the number 1 selection in this years draft I will be using it on AP. Peterson is the new LT as long as he stays healthy. I also think that MJD is going to have a breakout year as well with Fred Taylor gone. Those are the ONLY 2 top rated backs that I am completely sold on coming into 2009 and if my number 1 pick is not either one of them my first pick will not be a RB and if I do get one of them my 2nd pick will absolutely not be a RB. In summary try something new on draft day this summer for a change. Obviously what you are doing is not working. Till next time.

Cheers and Beers

Chris Limburg is the fanatical purveyor of [http://Gothicfootball.com] an Oakland Raider/fantasy football blog that provides commentary on everything that is the NFL and fantasy football. Visit today at: [http://www.gothicfootball.com]